Just a quick note – Bill, my Philadelphia friend, challenged me on my CF ratings. He felt Victorino should be ranked ahead of Kotsay. I agree. So, that gives the Phillies 24 total points, the Braves 23 (see the earlier posts to figure out my simple ranking and scoring system). Now, we examine each team’s starting rotation. It’s an interesting mix. The Mets trumped everyone by getting Johan Santana from the Twins. The Phillies want to move Myers back to the rotation and they have a pretty fair young lefty ace too in Cole Hamels. The Braves have depth and experience now that Tom Glavine is in the mix. Florida has some catching up to do with Willis gone, but Mitre and Olson are fine young hurlers.
The Nationals have much better talent than last year’s tryout camp and a few young guys in Colin Balester and Ross Detwiler that might make some waves later in the year. Garrett Mock and Tyler Clippard have potential, but it probably needs to be refined. The good news is that both are power pitchers, something the Nats sorely lacked last season. Washington’s problem is that the two best pitchers, John Patterson and Shawn Hill have a track record of despair — lots of injuries and only one semi-full season between them. Also, we’ll get to see if Matt Chico is more Tom Glavine or Mike O’Connor. I think he’s tough enough to withstand the challenge from Odalis Perez and pitch well, but the beauty of baseball is that time will tell.
Enough chatter, let’s get to the ratings:
1 – NY – Santana, Martinez, Maine, Perez, Hernandez/Pelfrey
Comments: By far the best rotation in the division if Martinez, Perez and El Duque stay healthy – but Santana and Maine could both win 20. Santana makes an average, risky group strong and puts the Mets above all rivals.
2 - Atl – Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, James, Hampton/others – #1 to #3 are old, but solid and strong. Glavine gives them the good left-hander the team has lacked. The Phillies aren’t far behind, but the Braves’ group gets the nod because of its experience and health. The are pretty weak after he big 3, though.
3 – Phi – Hamels, Myers, Kendrick, Moyer, Eaton/Benson(?), others — Didn’t see Benson on the depth chart, but my Philly source tells me he’s signed. An intriguing group. Hamels is scary good, close to Santana in my book. I’m just not sure Myers is as good as everyone says and Kendrick seemed to overachieve — also, health is an issue as Hamels and Myers have had arm trouble. But, if Kendrick is real, Moyer has one more year left and the top 2 stay healthy, this rotation might be good enough to get Philly into the #2 spot.
4 – Was – Patterson, Hill, Bergmann, Lannan, Chico/Redding – The Nats have excellent depth at the back end of the rotation – Clippard, Redding, Mock, Balester, Detwiler and a few other youngins’ could probably fill those 3-5 slots. Detwiler might be fantastic, but likely not this year. The trouble is there’s no real ace. Patterson and Hill are good, not great even when healthy (though Hill could be a top line NL pitcher with that sinker) – but they’re just NEVER healthy. The new park will also separate the men from the boys in this group. But, if the Nats keep drafting like last year, this rotation could be excellent top to bottom by 2010. There’s potential here, but nothing proven and no ace like Santana, Hamels and Smoltz. That will change soon, but likely not in 2008.
5 – Fla – Olson, Mitre, Miller, Hendrickson, Nolasco/others — A weak group with Willis long gone and Anibal Sanchez injured(?) – Olson and Mitre are good #3/#4 guys, but not really aces. Unless help is coming from the farm, this group is way behind the others.
So, if we add these ranking to the previous ones (remember 1 point for first…5 points for 5th) we stand:
Mets – 20
Braves – 25
Phils – 27
Nationals – 31
Marlins – 32
Next: The bullpens. Do the Nationals really have one of baseball’s best? Stay tuned to find out my opinion.