So, we looked at the infield and found the Nats lagging behind the big three. How do they fare in the outfield against their NL East opponents? Two excellent centerfielders, Aaron Rowland, formerly in Philly and Andruw Jones, in Atlanta left the division and the Nats picked up two youngsters, Latings Milledge and Elijah Dukes, the troubled young man who has not lived up to his Biblical namesake.
Let’s take a look at the NL East outfield:
Left field – 1 – Josh Willingham (Fla) 2 – Moises Alou (NY) 3 – Pat Burrell (Phi) 4 – Pena/Dukes (Was) 5 – Matt Diaz (Atl)
Comments: A flawed bunch. Willingham gets the nod due to his talent and youth. He’s a good, solid, young power hitter. I could switch Burrell and Alou, but gave the nod to Alou since he’s a more versatile hitter, a tougher out. Burrell’s feast or famine, with lots of K’s. Neither can field at all. I’d love to rank the Nationals tandem higher since both are young and full of potential, but neither has proven their worth over an entire season. Pena has great power, but strikes out way too often and never walks. Dukes might be great, but he needs to prove he can play well and hold his temper and regulate his behavior for an entire season. Baseball eventually brings out the worst in everyone. It’s long, long season. Nats’ fan saw Jose Guillen hold it together for half a season, then he exploded when Pedro hit him in the back on July 5, 2005, taking the clubhouse and the team down with him. If Dukes and/or Pena blossom, they could surge ahead of the two old guys ahead of them. Atlanta appears to trail the pack here, but they always seem to find a prospect to come in and play well. Diaz is ok, but nothing special from what I’ve seen.
Centerfield 1 – Carlos Beltran (NY) 2 – Cameron Maybin (Fla) 3- Lastings Milledge (Was) 4 – Mark Kotsay (Atl) 5 – Shane Victorino (Phi)
Comments: I know my Phillies fans will question this one, but I’m not sold on Victorino. He can field well, but his hitting seems inflated by the Philly park. Beltran is the best by far of this bunch, but Maybin and Milledge could both break out this year and be very good. Judging from the players on the other end of the trades, it seems Maybin has a higher upside than Milledge, but time will tell. Kotsay is a solid vet to keep the position warm until Jeff Schaeffer, the Braves hot prospect, is ready.
Right Field – 1 – Jeff Francouer (Atl), 2- Jeremy Hermida (Fla) 3 – Austin Keanrs (Was) 4 – Ryan Church (NY) 5 – Geoff Jenkins/Jayson Werth (Phi)
Comments: Francouer has his flaws at bat – lack of patience – but he has power, drives in runs, and is a great fielder. Kearns fields nearly as well, if not better than Francouer, but hasn’t shown he can hit like Hermida can. In today’s baseball, you need some power in your OF. I’d love to see Kearns reach his hitting potential – he has everything else you’d want – fields great, great teammate, plays hard, but he’s not shown he can his consistently — yet. I really liked Chuch – 46 doubles are a testament to his ability, but he does have some holes in his swing and somehow, since 2005, seems hesitant and unsure of himself in the field. The NY media might grind him up — or he could put it all together and pass Kearns. I think Jenkins will hit a lot of home runs in Philly, but strike out way too much and butcher too many fly balls to keep Philliy’s fickle fans happy. Werth is a solid back-up who will have his moments, both good and bad.
So, the Nats have an OF full of potential, but unproven — and completely right-handed. I could see this group being death on left-handed pitching, which would help the Nats in the lefty-heavy NL East. But righties like Myers, Pedro, Smoltz and Hudson could eat these guys alive. It’s one of the most intriguing stories about the 2008 Nationals that will be fun to follow. For instance, Pena could hit 45 home runs and/or strike out 200 times with under 40 walks. He needs to heed the advice Ted Williams gave Frank Howard in 1969 – learn how to take a strike and a walk!
Ok, let’s add up the rankings. Florida, surprisingly, comes in first with 5 points. The Mets are second with 7. The Nats and Braves tie with 10. Philadelphia is 5th with 13 points.
So, how does the NL East look so far, taking infield and outfield together? Below it’s total score (IF score/OF score)
1 – Mets 19 (12/7)
2 – Braves 22 (12/10)
3 – Phillies 25 (12/13)
4 – Nationals 27 (17/10)
4 – Marlins 27 (22/5)
Gulp! The Marlins catch up to the Nats now and we see some separation between the top 3, with the Phillies taking a big hit. I believe they will really miss Rowland, just like the White Sox did.
Next, starting rotations. Who has the best? How will it change the overall rankings?
I think Victorino is a solid CF! Lots of speed, good arm – pretty good leadoff guy.
I don’t know about Maybin and Milledge…but I would take Victorino over Kotsay in a heartbeat.