For the first time since major league baseball returned to Washington, D.C., Nationals fans have reasonable grounds for hope. Thanks to Mike Rizzo’s whirlwind of moves the past two seasons, the team has a promising mix of veterans and youngsters. Veterans Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez, free agent blockbuster Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche are proven veterans. Paired with high-potential youngsters like Wilson Ramos, Danny Espinosa, Ian Desmond, and Roger Bernadina, the Nationals look like a bona fide professional club. The pitching, a perennial weaknesses since fans closed out 2005 with a standing ovation for Frank Robinson’s boys, finally has credible starters like Livan Hernandez, Tom Gorzelanny, Jason Marquis, and John Lannan. Unlike 2005, Rizzo has also added depth with Yunesky Maya, Ross Detwiler, Chien-Ming Wang, and Rule 5 pick Brian Broderick, with 2nd round pick Sammy Solis waiting in the wings.
Even better, the farm system, denuded from years of neglect under Major League Baseball’s control and frightful mismanagement and folly under Jim Bowden, is at long last starting to blossom. In 2005, prescient USA Today baseball writer Paul White pointed out that Washington’s new major league club was better than people thought. White felt the team could play .500 ball and contend for the play-offs well into September. But, he cautioned, look out if they have any injuries, because there is nothing on the farm. “The cupboard is bare,” he said.
Fortunately, with Rizzo in charge and the Lerner’s committing funds to grow the scouting staff and pay above slot for hard-to-sign youngsters like A.J. Cole, the Nationals farm system is getting better. There’s finally a pipeline of prospects to make life at Nationals Park better one day. Hope warms fans’ hearts when they think of Solis, Cole, Cole Kimball, Brad Peacock, Corey Brown, Stephen Lombardozzi, Chris Marrero, Eury Perez, Derek Norris, Destin Hood, and many others. Add probable superstars Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper and Washington looks more and more like a thriving franchise with a future to put far behind memories of the past five wretched years.
But not yet. Not in 2011.
Nationals fans should gird themselves now for a long season of patience and deferred hope. In the worst-case scenario, remote but not impossible, the club could return to the 100-loss dreck fans suffered through in 2008-09.
How could this be? Well, except for Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche, and Ryan Zimmerman, the Nationals hitters are either veterans past their prime or beginners still learning how to excel and endure in a 162 game season. Young hitters Wilson Ramos, Roger Bernadina, Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa could be prone to rookie jitters or sophomore slumps. Pudge Rodriguez and LaRoche could be past their primes.
On the mound, the team lack a true ace (until Strasburg returns) and a proven closer (unless Rizzo signs one or makes a trade). Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis may have their best days behind them, Jordan Zimmermann may still need seasoning, and southpaws Tom Gorzelanny and John Lannan may be no better than 4.50 ERA journeymen.
Added together, the current 2011 Nationals have many areas where the season could derail. Worse, by failing to replace Nyjer “Knucklehead” Morgan in center field, Washington could be a bad team and suffer repeated incidents of embarrassment and shame. Here’s hoping Rizzo and manager Jim Riggleman have resolved to deem such foolishness unacceptable.
While the farm system is improving, the organization still lacks quality depth an nearly every position, save catcher (with Jesus Flores and Derek Norris in the wings). Who fills in if Ian Desmond remains an error machine with a sub .300 on-base percentage and/or Danny Espinosa struggles to break the Mendoza Line and trends toward 200 strikeouts? Alberto Gonzalez? Alex Cora? Please. Jerry Hairston? Maybe.
Who covers left field if Roger Bernadina (.212 batting average after the all-star break) still can’t hit? Rick Ankiel? Only against right-handed pitching! Maybe Ankiel and Morse can platoon in left. If Pudge ages fast and Flores remains injury prone, is Ramos ready? If Corey Brown struggles at AAA, where does the organization turn for outfield depth? What happens if none of the flame-throwing kids can handle closing out games?
Teams this thin, with this many questions, usually end up on the wrong side of 85-90 games. There’s just too many ifs, too many holes to fill.
The wonderful difference, though, is that the franchise has good players on the way to fill those holes in 2012 and beyond. As long as Strasburg does not falter in his return from major surgery, the Nationals have a good to great pitcher on the way. Harper may be starting in the outfield on 2012 Opening Day. At least some of the other kids, and some we haven’t even heard of yet, will arrive and play well. Plus, the Lerner’s have shown they will pursue top free agents and draft picks (the Nats get 2 extra ones for losing Adam Dunn) and Rizzo has displayed a talent for creative ways to find talent.
The future appears bright. The 2005 team was a comet, bright at the start, it’s light faded and nothing but darkness followed. But now, there’s a light shining in the distance, getting brighter all the time. While 2011 will most likely be a year requiring patience, 2012 could bring hope, and 2013, joy.
Below is a brief summary of the team’s projected 2011 roster and their 2010 performances:
Projected Starters, Hitting:
Strengths: Depth, defense, solid 3-4-5 (imagine Zim – Dunn – Werth, sigh), promising youngsters (Espinosa, Desmond, Ramos, Bernadina), power from both sides on bench (Left – Ankiel, Stairs; Right – Morse)
Weaknesses: on-base ability of top 2 hitters, too many strikeouts, low batting average, one bat shy of good (Harper?), overly risky baserunning
Nyjer Morgan (CF): 4 seasons, 30 years-old on Opening Day
2010 OPS: .633 Career: .704
2010 WAR: -1.1 Career Best: 2.0 in 212 plate appearances (PA) with Washington, 2009
Ian Desmond (SS): 1 season, 25
2010 OPS: .700 Career: .724
2010 WAR: 0.6 Career Best: Rookie in 2010
Ryan Zimmerman (3B): 5 seasons, 26
2010 OPS: .899 Career: .839
2010 WAR: 5.3, Career Best
Jayson Werth (RF): 8 seasons, 31
2010 OPS: .921 Career: .921
2010 WAR: 5.2, Career Best
Adam LaRoche (1B): 7 seasons, 31
2010 OPS: .788 Career: .827
2010 WAR: 1.2 Career Best: 2.7 (2006)
Danny Espinosa (2B): 23, Rookie in 2011 (Projects to .725+ OPS)
Roger Bernadina (LF): 26, Rookie in 2010
2010 OPS: .691 Career: .670 (163 games total)
2010 WAR: -0.2
Ivan Rodriguez (C): 20 seasons, 39
2010 OPS: .640 Career: .800 (such days are long gone!)
2010 WAR: 1.0 Career Best: 6.6 (1998)
Wilson Ramos (C): 23, Rookie in 2011 (Projects to .700 OPS, great defensive catcher, learning from boyhood hero)
Bench (Age, Career OPS): Rick Ankiel (31, .754), Jerry Hairston (34, .695), Matt Stairs (43, .837), Mike Morse (29, .810), Alberto Gonzalez (27, .623), Alex Cora (35, .652)
Projected Pitching Staff:
Strengths: Depth, good lefty/righty mix, lots of hard throwers, youth, and potential in bullpen
Weaknesses: No ace, starters overall are mediocre lot, no proven closer, no high-strikeout starter, too many home runs allowed
Starters:
Livan Hernandez: 36 (?), 15 seasons
2010 ERA: 3.66 Career: 4.39
2010 WAR: 3.4 2010 WHIP: 1.323
Tom Gorzelanny: 28, 6 seasons
2010 ERA: 4.09 Career: 4.68
2010 WAR: 1.8 2010 WHIP: 1.496 (yikes!)
Jordan Zimmermann: 24, 2 seasons
2010 ERA: 4.94 (7 starts) Career: 4.71
Career WAR: 0.4; WHIP: 1.349
Jason Marquis: 32, 11 seasons
2010 ERA: 6.60 Career: 4.56
2010 WAR: -1.3; 2010 WHIP: 1.705 (hopefully, an aberration)
John Lannan: 26, 4 seasons
2010 ERA: 4.65 Career: 4.10
2010 WAR: 0.3 2010 WHIP: 1.563
Others: Yunesky Maya, Chien-Ming Wang, Ross Detwiler, Brian Broderick
Bullpen:
Sean Burnett: 28, 4 seasons
2010 ERA: 2.14 Career: 3.80
2010 WAR: 2.0; 2010 WHIP: 1.143
Doug Slaten: 31, 5 seasons
2010 ERA: 3.10 Career: 3.49
2010 WAR: 0.3; 2010 WHIP: 1.303
Tyler Clippard: 26, 3 seasons
2010 ERA: 3.07 Career: 3.48
2010 WAR: 1.7; 2010 WHIP: 1.209
Drew Storen: 23, Rookie in 2010
2010 ERA: 3.58
2010 WAR: 0.5; 2010 WHIP: 1.265
Henry Rodriguez: 23, Rookie in 2011 (Projects to > 9 K’s per 9 innings)
Craig Stammen: 27, 2 seasons
2010 ERA: 5.13 Career: 5.12
2010 WAR: -0.3; 2010 WHIP: 1.404
Todd Coffey: 30, 6 seasons
2010 ERA: 4.76 Career: 4.15
2010 WAR: -0.9; 2010 WHIP: 1.412
Others: Colin Balester, Elvin Ramirez, Cole Kimball