In January, I wrote a pre-season analysis of the 2011 Nationals roster at that time. Because of a crazy-busy work and home life, it also was my last post on this blog — until now.
With no more than 2 games left in the World Series (Go old Washington Senators!), I figured this is a good time to re-visit my predictions and assessment of my favorite baseball team.
Overall, the team surprised its fans and nearly all experts with an 80-81 record, good for 3rd place in the NL East and 15th best record in major league baseball. Even more astonishing, the Nationals achieved this record with extremely disappointing seasons from their two big free agent signings, Adam LaRoche and Jayson Werth, and only a September cameo from budding ace Stephen Strasburg.
So, how well did I project the performance of the 2011 Nats? Let’s take a look. My earlier post is in bold.
For the first time since major league baseball returned to Washington, D.C., Nationals fans have reasonable grounds for hope. (Turned out to be true – the team was respectable, rarely blown out, and had a winning record at home, something all decent teams do regularly).
Thanks to Mike Rizzo’s whirlwind of moves the past two seasons, the team has a promising mix of veterans and youngsters. Veterans Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez, free agent blockbuster Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche are proven veterans. (Yes, but all of these guys either missed significant time with injuries or underachieved. While still a defensive star, Pudge looks extremely weak at bat. He did, however, give me and my sons a great memory with his game-winning hit against the Pirates in the 2nd game of their July 2 doubleheader. I completely missed Michael Morse’s fabulous season, only overlooking one of the NL’s best hitters.).
Paired with high-potential youngsters like Wilson Ramos, Danny Espinosa, Ian Desmond, and Roger Bernadina, the Nationals look like a bona fide professional club. (All but Bernadina looked solid in 2011, and even “The Shark” Bernadina played great defense and stole a lot of bases in a part-time role shuttling between DC and Syracuse).
The pitching, a perennial weaknesses since fans closed out 2005 with a standing ovation for Frank Robinson’s boys, finally has credible starters like Livan Hernandez, Tom Gorzelanny, Jason Marquis, and John Lannan. Unlike 2005, Rizzo has also added depth with Yunesky Maya, Ross Detwiler, Chien-Ming Wang, and Rule 5 pick Brian Broderick, with 2nd round pick Sammy Solis waiting in the wings. (Somehow, I forgot Jordan Zimmermann! He was only the staff ace in 2011. Other than a penchant for giving up damaging late-inning homers he pitched fabulously.
Livan faded, Gorzelanny underachieved until he moved to the bullpen, Marquis pitched well before being traded, Lannan had a good season, but walks too many hitters, Maya bombed, Detwiler and Wang looked strong in September. Broderick was in over his head and Solis is far from ready)
Even better, the farm system, denuded from years of neglect under Major League Baseball’s control and frightful mismanagement and folly under Jim Bowden, is at long last starting to blossom. There’s finally a pipeline of prospects to make life at Nationals Park better one day. Hope warms fans’ hearts when they think of Solis, A.J. Cole, Cole Kimball, Brad Peacock, Corey Brown, Stephen Lombardozzi, Chris Marrero, Eury Perez, Derek Norris, Destin Hood, and many others. Add probable superstars Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper and Washington looks more and more like a thriving franchise with a future to put far behind memories of the past five wretched years.
(I was mainly accurate in this assessment as nearly everyone on the list made progress last season. I forgot to mention Tom Milone, who did well in September. The system still suffers from lack of hitting, but Rendon and Goodwin, plus the addition of Zach Walter in the Marquis trade could remedy that. The injuries to Kimball and Brown were disappointing. Marrero had a enigmatic performance in extended duty in August and September. He made contact and fielded well, but faded in the second half of September and showed no power at all, unacceptable for a first baseman.)
But not yet. Not in 2011.
Nationals fans should gird themselves now for a long season of patience and deferred hope. In the worst-case scenario, remote but not impossible, the club could return to the 100-loss dreck fans suffered through in 2008-09.
(Wrong! The team’s best pitcher was hurt until September, its 2nd best was shut down with 30 games to go, it’s best offensive player (Zimmerman) missed 60 games, Werth slumped until the last 4o games, LaRoche played hurt and couldn’t hit a lick, the left-handed set-up men (Burnett, Slaten) stunk most of the season, the team “led” the majors in strike outs and had one of baseball’s weakest offenses and worst lead-off and #2 hitters, yet still won 80 games. Not a worse case scenario, but a bit worse than “normal.”
How could this be? Well, except for Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche, and Ryan Zimmerman, the Nationals hitters are either veterans past their prime or beginners still learning how to excel and endure in a 162 game season. Young hitters Wilson Ramos, Roger Bernadina, Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa could be prone to rookie jitters or sophomore slumps. Pudge Rodriguez and LaRoche could be past their primes.
(Again, completely overlooked Morse! Pudge IS past his prime as a hitter. The jury remain out on LaRoche, who strikes out often even in his good seasons, a trait the current line-up can ill afford. Zimmerman should rebound, but his looming contract expiration could prove a distraction if not resolved this winter. Werth should also return to career norms as attention shifts to mega free agents Albert Pujols, CC Sabbathia, and Prince Fielder. Ramos, Desmond, and Espinosa had their ups and downs, but all look like bona fide major league hitters who will improve with experience. Bernadina is a classic AAAA player, with some skills, but not enough to be a regular in the majors. Overall, my assessment was accurate.)
On the mound, the team lack a true ace (until Strasburg returns) and a proven closer (unless Rizzo signs one or makes a trade). Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis may have their best days behind them, Jordan Zimmermann may still need seasoning, and southpaws Tom Gorzelanny and John Lannan may be no better than 4.50 ERA journeymen.
(Rizzo failed to land his big-time starter and, except for Zimmermann, the rotation was fair to middling until Strasburg returned and Detwiler surprised in September. The club still lacks an additional proven veteran starter.
What I completely missed was the quality of the bullpen. Although Burnett and Slaten struggled and Henry Rodriguez was either wonderful or awful, others (Coffey vs. RH hitters and Mattheus) did well and Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen were outstanding. Clippard, in fact, was the best set-up man in baseball with an absurd 0.88 WHIP. Other than a tendency to give up crushing home runs at times, “Clip” excelled. Storen, with his biting slider, turned out to be a better closer than even the most optimistic Nationals fans could have expected.)
Added together, the current 2011 Nationals have many areas where the season could derail. Worse, by failing to replace Nyjer “Knucklehead” Morgan in center field, Washington could be a bad team and suffer repeated incidents of embarrassment and shame. Here’s hoping Rizzo and manager Jim Riggleman have resolved to deem such foolishness unacceptable.
(Well, after tangling with Werth and dogging wind sprints, Rizzo blessedly showed “Tony Plush” the door. And, shockingly, Riggleman decided to also be a “knucklehead” and resign over a contract dispute during the team’s June winning streak. His plight seemed eerily similar to the conversations Art Howe and Billy Beane had over the same issue in “Moneyball.”In the end, Davey Johnson in the dugout looks like a major upgrade.
Unfortunately, other than his excellent defense and elite throwing arm, Rick Ankiel could not hit anywhere near as well as Morgan did for the Milwaukee Brewers. Still, the culture of the team seemed to improve immeasurably once Morgan left.)
While the farm system is improving, the organization still lacks quality depth an nearly every position, save catcher (with Jesus Flores and Derek Norris in the wings).
(Neither player looks ready for a regular role, although Flores may end up a solid back-up to Ramos).
Who fills in if Ian Desmond remains an error machine with a sub .300 on-base percentage and/or Danny Espinosa struggles to break the Mendoza Line and trends toward 200 strikeouts? Alberto Gonzalez? Alex Cora? Please. Jerry Hairston? Maybe.
(Desmond improved in the field after becoming a father and improved his hitting when Davey Johnson. Gonzo went to San Diego, fielded well and couldn’t hit his weight, as expected. Hairston played great all-around baseball filling in for Zimmerman. He may return as a free agent if Rizzo feels Lombardozzi isn’t ready.)
Who covers left field if Roger Bernadina (.212 batting average after the all-star break) still can’t hit? Rick Ankiel? Only against right-handed pitching! Maybe Ankiel and Morse can platoon in left. If Pudge ages fast and Flores remains injury prone, is Ramos ready? If Corey Brown struggles at AAA, where does the organization turn for outfield depth? What happens if none of the flame-throwing kids can handle closing out games?
(Morse looks much more comfortable at 1B, but any team would love to put him in left field, leave him alone and let him hit. I also missed Lance Nix, who has power, but lacks patience. He did, however, help the team overcome the loss of LaRoche. Ankiel has mainly defensive value, but did show some power and a few hot streaks in between his many strikeouts. Gomes is nothing more than a feisty, right handed bat who pounds southpaws. The team desperately needs a CF, who, preferably, is also a good lead-off hitter (or a RF, if Werth moves to center).
Teams this thin, with this many questions, usually end up on the wrong side of 85-90 games. There’s just too many ifs, too many holes to fill.
(Well, this team was not as thin as I thought. I judged them a bad club when they were an average one.)
The wonderful difference, though, is that the franchise has good players on the way to fill those holes in 2012 and beyond. As long as Strasburg does not falter in his return from major surgery, the Nationals have a good to great pitcher on the way.(Sure looked that way in September).
Harper may be starting in the outfield on 2012 Opening Day. (Nope, maybe July 2012 at the earliest).
At least some of the other kids, and some we haven’t even heard of yet, will arrive and play well. Plus, the Lerner’s have shown they will pursue top free agents and draft picks (the Nats get 2 extra ones for losing Adam Dunn)(Wow, was this a good move! Who knew?) and Rizzo has displayed a talent for creative ways to find talent.
The future appears bright. The 2005 team was a comet, bright at the start, it’s light faded and nothing but darkness followed. But now, there’s a light shining in the distance, getting brighter all the time. While 2011 will most likely be a year requiring patience, 2012 could bring hope, and 2013, joy.
(Overall, hope came a year early, here’s hoping at least a little joy does, too!)
Let me know what you think — post a comment!